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Overview:

This paper examines time series models for predicting the power of a wind farm at different time scales, i.e., 10-min and hour-long intervals. The time series models are built with data mining algorithms. Five different data mining algorithms have been tested on various wind farm datasets. Two of the five algorithms performed particularly well. The support vector machine regression algorithm provides accurate predictions of wind power and wind speed at 10-min intervals up to 1 h into the future, while the multilayer perceptron algorithm is accurate in predicting power over hour-long intervals up to 4 h ahead.

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Format:PDFSize:1,476 KB
Date:Mar 2009
Pages:12

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